Tornadoes, destructive wind outbreak hit eastern Michigan

A dangerous, widespread tornado and destructive wind outbreak is expected this afternoon across some states to our west. Severe storms will move toward Michigan, but may weaken significantly as they move through our state. Here’s the first update on today’s tornado threat in Michigan.

The overall inclement weather forecast today gives you a pretty good idea of ​​where the storm will break out first. This also gives us hope that the storms may weaken somewhat as they move west toward Michigan.

While I am talking about the possibility of some weakening due to the storm’s entry into Michigan, it should be noted that the orange shaded area in West Michigan is still an “enhanced severe weather risk” area.

The basic idea is that individual supercell storms, the most severe type of storm, will develop across Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin and Illinois this afternoon. Individual storms can produce severe tornadoes, very destructive wind gusts up to 90 mph, and very large hail more than 2 inches in diameter. The storms are then expected to merge and develop into a line of storms. At that point, the risk of tornadoes decreases but the potential for straight-line winds remains. Westward from Grand Rapids, we have a severe weather risk rated at Level 3 on a 5-level scale. Most of the rest of Lower Michigan is at a Level 2 risk. If the storms behave as expected, they should fall below severe criteria as they move into Ann Arbor, Detroit and the Thumb overnight.

There is an overall threat of severe weather for today, May 21. This forecast adds the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail.NOAA

The high wind forecast is indicating the potential for high wind gusts in storms to our west. The wind forecast below the black hatched area indicates the potential for gusts of 75 mph or greater. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) said the storm could have winds of up to 90 mph just west of Michigan. The line of storms could still be severe as it crosses Lake Michigan and enters western Michigan. If the storm line doesn’t enter Michigan until the early afternoon this evening, we will be in much better shape with weak storms. Fortunately, things are pointing in this direction at the moment. Even late evening storms can be severe, just not as severe as those to our west.

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Strong wind forecast for today, May 21.NOAA

Tornadoes are more likely to occur just west of Lower Michigan. We get one or two isolated tornadoes with any break in the line of severe storms. There is again a 2% chance of tornadoes across the western third of Lower Michigan. The isolated tornado forecast as of 7:45 this morning includes Traverse City, Big Rapids, Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo.

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Tornado forecast for today, May 21.NOAA

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Severe hailstorm forecast for today, May 21.NOAA

The initial appearance of the line of storms is early in the evening along the shores of Lake Michigan. Some data even shows the line of storms waiting until late in the evening. The later the storm arrives, the better we will do with low-end severe storms.

The line of storms is expected to move into eastern Lower Michigan any time between late evening and midnight. Obviously we’ve seen severe midnight storms before, but the chances of something significant happening this late at night would be very low.

Start thinking about stormy weather this evening and night. I can update you once the models come round late in the morning Here,

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Disclaimer : The content in this article is for educational and informational purposes only.

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