Keith Law’s MLB Draft’s biggest surprises, best team players and best players still available

After all the gossip and rumors and claims that there would be some crazy pre-draft deals with players and shocking selections, the first round of the 2024 MLB Draft mostly consisted of guys we thought would go first. MLB teams selected 74 players on day one, and 66 were in my top 100.

Of the first 30 picks – the actual first round – 25 players managed to land in my top 31. There were no huge surprises, no non-top 100 type players were taken in the first round, there were no extraordinary breakthroughs, and for the most part the best players ended up at the top of the draft.

Here are some general observations, followed by my picks for the entire first round. I’ll be offering team-by-team summaries for all 30 clubs later this week, so if I haven’t mentioned your team here, you should bear with me.

Cleveland Guardians: They had the first pick and they selected one of the only two legitimate options in my view, Oregon State second baseman Travis Bazzana. Then the Guardians turned around and took a high school pitcher, Braylon Doughty, with their Competitive Balance Round A (CBA) pick at 36, which I think will reap a big chunk of the savings from the under-slot deal with Bazzana. They selected NC State catcher Jacob Cozart, who quietly had a great year at the plate for the Wolfpack, with their second round pick (No. 48). I think they landed two everyday players up the middle, and then took a sensible flyer on a very good high school arm.

Colorado Rockies: The Rockies landed the No. 1 player on my board, Golden Spikes winner Charlie Condon, and acquired another first-round talent in Iowa right-hander Brody Brecht with their CBA pick at 38. Brecht is a project, a high school arm on a college pitcher’s body, so to speak, but if anyone needs to take a risk on high-upside pitching, it’s the Rockies.

Arizona Diamondbacks: The Dbacks took two players from my top 15 in high school outfielder Slade Caldwell (No. 29) and Kentucky outfielder Ryan Waldschmidt (No. 31). Caldwell is a short outfielder from Arkansas who probably goes up too much considering he’s 6 feet tall, but he can really hit and defend. Waldschmidt was one of the best hitters in the college group, but apparently he slipped because some teams were concerned about a knee injury (ACL) that ended his 2023 season. They decided to move up a little with J.D. Dix, a high school infielder from Wisconsin who is committed to Oregon State, at pick No. 35, and then moved up quite a bit for their last pick of the day, Puerto Rican catcher Ivan Luciano (No. 64), who will probably come in the slot.

Kansas City Royals: Look, I don’t think Jack Cagliano is a two-way player, and I’m not sure the Royals even believe that, even if they declared him to be one. He has the power the Royals have been looking for throughout the franchise’s history, and taking him at No. 6, when he was one of the best players available anyway, made perfect sense. I also like the selection of 41-year-old left-hander David Shields. He earned very high marks for his delivery and pitching sense, and I’m all for taking high school players who have those things and who could have big speed after a few years.

New York Mets and New York Yankees: If you don’t like New York, skip this note. I like the Mets’ two picks, including Carson Benz (No. 19) with real upside play as a hitter who makes a lot of hard contact and needs some minor tweaks to get power; and Jonathan Santucci (No. 46), a left-hander from Duke who has first-round stuff and some injury concern after a fracture in his elbow in the spring of 2023. Santucci was their second-round pick, and taking a chance on a first-round arm with your second pick is a big gamble. Meanwhile, the Yankees took one of my personal favorites in this draft, Alabama right-hander Ben Hayes, with their first pick (No. 26), and followed that up with Vanderbilt right-hander Bryce Cunningham (No. 53). Both look like pitchers who would thrive in the Yankees’ player development system.

Seattle Mariners: I heard the Mariners wanted pitching, and they landed two pitchers from my top 30 with switch-pitcher Jurangelo Cijente (No. 15) and prep right-hander Ryan Sloan (No. 55). (Commissioner Rob Manfred declared Cijente a “switch-handed pitcher.” What? We don’t say “switch-handed hitter.” It’s switch-hitter and it should be switch-pitcher.) Sloan is pretty much the best player ever, with a 100-mph fastball and a plus changeup, and if he can show he can throw enough strikes the Mariners should be aggressive with him. Their system is very hitter-heavy, and the draft just so happens to give them two first-round arms.

Washington Nationals: The Nats did well with their three picks, acquiring one from the Royals on Saturday for Hunter Harvey, Wake Forest shortstop/centerfielder Seward King with their first pick (No. 10) and a high-upside high school infielder in Luke Dickerson with their third pick (No. 44). They used the new pick (No. 39) on Cal catcher Caleb Lomavita, reasonable value on that pick, though I might not like a guy who is as impatient at the plate as he is.

The Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies made surprising selections: The biggest surprises of the first round, ranking-wise, were Braylon Payne (Milwaukee) and Dante Nori (Philadelphia). Payne went 17th overall; I had him 78th, despite his 80 speed, because he needs to get a lot stronger to hit enough to keep up the speed. I’m not saying he can’t do it, but it takes time, and there’s a risk he doesn’t get the strength he needs. Nori went 27th overall, and I had him 65th, more than anything because he’s a 19-year-old high school product — he’ll turn 20 in October. He has the tools, and I think there could be another grade of power there if someone loosens up his lower back. I’m not saying either one is a bad pick, not by any means, but I didn’t see either guy going there in the first place.

Vance Honeycutt went to the Orioles at No. 22. (Ben McKeown / Associated Press)

Where high-profile names arrived: Most of the famous players coming into the draft lived up to their fame. Cagliano might have been the most famous player in the class, and he finished sixth, not terrible but not 1-1 like the hype would have you believe. Vance Honeycutt made it to the first round with Baltimore, going 22nd. Tommy White, aka Tommy Tank, who was the nation’s top freshman in 2022, ultimately went to the A’s at pick 40. The industry is very good at ignoring the hype and evaluating the player.

Best Available Players for Day 2

1. Peyton Stovall, 2B, Arkansas (Ranked No. 34)
2. Kevin Biegel, C/3B, Texas Tech (No. 35)
3. Dakota Jordan, OF, Mississippi State (No. 49)
4. D’Marion Terrell, OF, Thompson HS, AL (No. 52)
5. Gage Miller, 3B, Alabama (No. 54)
6. Carson Wiggins, RHP, Rowland HS, OK (No. 55)
7. Jared Jones, 1B, LSU (No. 57)
8. Connor Gatwood, RHP, Baker HS, AL (No. 61)
9. Dax Whitney, RHP, Blackfoot HS, ID (No. 63)
10. Mike Sirota, OF, Northeastern (No. 65)

The list of best players still available looks different this year — usually it’s mostly high school players who command high prices, but this year the first three players are from college and only four of the top 10 players remaining are from high school. D’Marion Terrell and Connor Gatwood are both committed to Auburn, Dax Whitney is committed to Oregon State, and Carson Wiggins is committed to Arkansas. I think the six college players here will be off the board soon, unless there’s a medical or some other non-baseball factor I haven’t heard of.

(Top photo: LM Otero/Associated Press)