Former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 election do not appear to be significantly affected by his guilty verdict in the hush money trial, according to polls.
On May 30, a New York City jury found Trump guilty of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in an attempt to conceal payments of money to adult film star Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election.
Trump, a presumptive 2024 Republican presidential nominee, has denied any wrongdoing. He claims the trial is “rigged” and that the case is an attempt to prevent him from winning against President Joe Biden in November.
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Although some polls indicate that Trump has been hurt by the criminal convictions against him in this closely contested race, some recent polls also indicate that the trial has not seriously damaged his hopes for the White House.
An Issues & Insights (I&I)/TIPP poll published on Monday showed that in a head-to-head contest, Trump and Biden are tied at 41 percent. This is an improvement for Trump, who trailed Biden by two points (42 to 40) in the I&I/TIPP poll in May.
The latest I&I/TIPP survey was conducted between May 29 and May 31, with the survey group suggesting that “a large majority” of the 1,675 registered voters who took the survey knew that Trump has been convicted of 34 serious crimes.
The survey also showed that independent voters still prefer Trump over Biden (38 percent vs. 26 percent). Support from this demographic could prove crucial to the outcome of several key swing states that could determine the winner.
“If anyone expected that Trump’s legal defeat would be followed by a sudden mass exodus of his voters, they will surely be disappointed,” I&I editor Terry Jones wrote in his analysis of polling data. “If anything, Trump’s hand appears to have strengthened with some in the immediate aftermath of his conviction.”
On the other hand, a Morning Consult survey of 10,404 registered voters, conducted between May 31 and June 2 after the jury in New York handed down its verdict, found that Trump is now ahead of Biden by one point (44 per cent to 43 per cent).
In a Morning Consult poll conducted on May 31, the day after Trump was found guilty, Biden was ahead of Trump by one point (45 percent to 44 percent) in a survey of 2,200 registered voters.
Newsweek Trump’s campaign team was contacted for comment via email.
Mark Shanahan, who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey in Britain, has previously said that support for Trump could “erode” in the long term once voters become more aware of the significance of a convicted felon contesting an election.
“Opinions about Trump have already formed across the country, and this verdict will not change that,” he said. Newsweek.
“In the short term, his polling and, indeed, his fundraising may increase, but that momentum could slow in the weeks and months ahead as voters look beyond the sentiment of the court’s decision to the fact that the former president was convicted by a jury of his peers: 12 citizens who evaluated the evidence and did not believe it.”
Trump, who has vowed to appeal his conviction, will be sentenced on July 11. Most legal experts have suggested Trump is unlikely to receive a prison sentence.
Speaking outside a New York City court after he was charged, Trump described the proceedings as “disgraceful” and said: “The real verdict will be given by the people on November 5th.”
Update 05/06/2024, 9:09am ET: Headline changed.
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